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Russia's economy in for a bumpy ride as sanctions bite

BBC




"It's the most affordable new vehicle in Russia. They're calling it… the anti-sanctions car!"


That was Russian state TV putting a positive spin on the new, not-so-improved, Lada rolling off the production line in the city of Togliatti.


"Most affordable" is perhaps its only selling point. Due to Western sanctions, the Russian carmaker cannot import all the components it used to. So the "anti-sanctions" Lada Granta has no airbag, no anti-lock braking system, no Electronic Stability Control and no seat-belt pretensioners.


Nearly four months after the invasion of Ukraine, the new Lada sort of sums up the Russian economy: it's still functioning, despite lacking some of the parts.


"Still functioning" is an achievement. Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world. According to data service Statista, more than 10,500 restrictions have been imposed on Russian individuals and companies. More than 7,500 of those were implemented in the last four months.


No wonder some experts had been predicting that, by now, the wheels would have come off the Russian economy completely.


"The scale of international sanctions would have caused economic collapse if they'd come out of nowhere," says Chris Weafer of Macro Advisory in Moscow.


"But Russia's been experiencing sanctions on an incremental basis since 2014. There's been an enormous ratcheting up, but there's also an element of this being something they've already been dealing with.


"What's more, the fear of supply disruption means that Russia's been earning even more money from exporting energy and raw materials. In the first five months of the year, its current account surplus was a record $110bn (£94bn). It can use that money to fund not only the military, but also subsidise state industries to make sure unemployment doesn't spike or incomes don't fall too much."

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